How Predictive Models Enhance Defensive Game Planning

David Padilla had an awakening. 

As an assistant at Los Angeles’ Chaminade Prep in 2017, he had to prep for St. John Bosco, commonly regarded as one of the nation’s top programs.

At Chaminade, data drives many of the staff’s coaching decisions. It was all justified in that Bosco game. The Eagles were the only team to hold them without any first-half points all season long.

“It opened my eyes to what a great tool the data could be,” Padilla said.

And since then, he’s had a roadmap for how to thrive. Now at Newhall, California’s William Hart High School, Padilla is among the country’s most frequent users of Hudl’s “What’s Next?” report, which predicts your opponent’s situational play calls based on the data in your scout film. It’s helping him build killer game plans.

0:30—Padilla’s coaching journey

Padilla’s background is in strength and conditioning, and defense. But along the way he had an epiphany. “I stopped grabbing things in the air and realized the importance of data,” he said.

1:45—Lessons from facing “the Alabama of high school football”

Going toe-to-toe with nationally-revered St. John Bosco in 2017—and being the only school to hold the Braves to no points in the first half that season—opened his eyes to what a great tool Hudl Assist could be. “It solidified what I had to do for the rest of my career,” he said. 

3:45—With data, it takes a village

Time is gold and coaches don’t have a lot of it. Padilla explains why Hudl is so important for the Hart coaching staff’s weekly plans during the season.

4:50—The role of Hudl Assist

Padilla says the interactive reports save him a half-dozen hours of work during the most labor-intensive parts of the week.

7:30—The value of predictive models

Every game throughout the season builds your arsenal of tools. Padilla talks about why he uses predictive models so much in his game planning, and how it allows him to “take calculated chances” with his data.

9:30—Padilla’s unique application of the “What’s Next?” report

Some teams wait until they have multiple games on an opponent before running the report. Instead, Padilla runs one on each individual scout film, looking at the commonalities and what the model predicts against different fronts. This allows him to better sharpen his defensive plans.

13:50—It works with self-scouting, too

With the expected shortened schedule this season, Padilla says he’s going to start using “What’s Next?” to make his team more aware of their own tendencies and how to fix them.

14:40—Avoiding “paralysis by analysis”

How much do you account for an opponent’s self-awareness to correct their own tendencies? Padilla explains how this line of thinking can lead you to call games too conservatively, and how to avoid it.